Baked Games Q4 2025: Legacy catalog still monetizes, but Alaska Gold Fever must carry the next growth cycle.
Q4 shifted from profit to loss with sales down sharply year over year, while pipeline value depends on Alaska Gold Fever launch execution and tighter cash discipline.
Executive Summary
The central tension is clear: Baked Games still generates revenue from its back catalog, but current quarterly profitability has weakened materially while most future upside depends on one unreleased flagship title. My verdict is Neutral to Bearish.
Q4 2025 shows a severe year-over-year decline in revenue and a swing from profit to loss. The company is still active across several titles and platform ports, yet commercial momentum is no longer broad enough to offset development costs and currency pressure. The core investment question is whether Alaska Gold Fever can convert development progress into launch quality and scalable monetization in 2026.
Key Financial Metrics
Full-year context remains weak. FY 2025 revenue is PLN 1,418,788 versus PLN 2,488,287 in FY 2024, and FY 2025 net result is a PLN 801,809 loss versus a PLN 101,380 loss in FY 2024. Operating cash flow is negative at PLN -949,101 for FY 2025, and period-end cash fell to PLN 750,907 from PLN 1,700,624, a decline of roughly 56%.
Portfolio and Sales Performance
The filing provides more title-level revenue detail than many peers, which is a positive for analytical clarity.
Prison Simulator remains the most visible long-tail monetization pillar. In FY 2025, the PC version contributed PLN 454,991.81 and Q4 contributed PLN 76,906.70. Console channels added further support: Xbox revenue was PLN 104,234.05 for FY and PLN 13,093.09 in Q4; PlayStation revenue was PLN 156,464.99 for FY and PLN 30,333.46 in Q4.
Other portfolio contributions are smaller. Tribe: Primitive Builder generated PLN 66,201.64 in FY and PLN 7,108.21 in Q4 from the reported cooperation economics. Tribe console versions also contributed, with PlayStation at PLN 37,260.41 FY and PLN 7,704.30 Q4, and Xbox at PLN 66,323.97 FY and PLN 6,832.43 Q4. Hammer of Pain remains early stage commercially, with PLN 2,614.95 to December 2025 and PLN 883.82 in Q4.
That breakdown helps, but it also exposes concentration and scale limits. The portfolio currently appears to be sustaining baseline revenue rather than producing a new breakout growth leg.
From an accounting quality perspective, inventory rose to PLN 1,909,108 from PLN 1,444,858, with work in progress at PLN 1,767,358 and finished goods at PLN 141,750. This confirms active capitalization of production effort. However, title-by-title carrying values, recoupment schedules, and amortization bridges are not disclosed in a way that allows investors to stress-test potential impairment sensitivity by game. Notably, reported amortization expense in the presented P&L lines is zero, which increases the need for clearer disclosure on when and how current balances will flow through earnings.
Future Outlook and Pipeline
Pipeline visibility is currently dominated by one principal project: Alaska Gold Fever, presented with a planned 2026 release window for PC, with console ambitions also described in the broader strategy narrative.
Development progress in Q4 appears substantial on paper, including quest design, tutorial iteration, performance optimization, environmental and economy balancing work, plus additional playtesting. These are necessary steps, but they are not substitutes for launch readiness proof points such as external conversion data, broad wishlist traction metrics, or a clear commercial timetable beyond a high-level year target.
Management also continues to emphasize portfolio diversification, but near-term revenue acceleration still depends heavily on Alaska Gold Fever execution. If release timing slips or launch quality underperforms market expectations, the current financial profile leaves limited room for error.
Risk Assessment
Market risk: Simulator and survival categories remain competitive on Steam, and legacy catalog revenues can decay faster when promotional intensity drops.
Portfolio concentration risk: Despite multiple titles, the next growth phase is primarily linked to one unreleased flagship project.
Amortization and asset-quality risk: Rising inventory and work in progress balances without granular recoupment disclosure raise uncertainty around future earnings volatility.
Cash flow risk: Negative operating cash flow and materially lower cash reserves increase sensitivity to delays, weaker sell-through, or higher launch spending.
Operational risk: Cross-platform execution, QA depth, and launch marketing efficiency in 2026 are likely to determine whether current development spending translates into shareholder value.
Management Commentary
The strategic message remains centered on execution of the current slate, especially "further development of key production projects, in particular the game Alaska Gold Fever.". That framing is reasonable for a studio in production mode, but capital-market confidence will depend on measurable commercial milestones: clearer launch timing, stronger conversion indicators, and visible stabilization of cash outflows.
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