Investment Analysis: Purple Ray Studio S.A. (Q4 2025)
The central tension for Purple Ray Studio is the stark contrast between its reported net profit and its operational cash burn.
Executive Summary
Verdict: NEUTRAL / WATCHLIST
The central tension for Purple Ray Studio is the stark contrast between its reported net profit and its operational cash burn. While the company reports a full-year net profit of 199k PLN, this figure is optically engineered through the capitalization of development costs. The reality is a negative operating cash flow of -1.95M PLN YTD, driven by heavy investment in its upcoming title, "Nightmare".
The company's recent NewConnect debut provides liquidity, but the balance sheet is loaded with 7.5M PLN in Work-In-Progress (WIP) inventory. This represents a massive "all-in" bet on "Nightmare". The existing title, "Boti: Byteland Overclocked", acts as a minor revenue stream but lacks the traction to sustain the studio. The investment thesis rests entirely on the execution and commercial reception of "Nightmare" in 2026. Until the new IP proves its market value, the equity value is speculative.
Key Financial Metrics
Analyst Note: The divergence between Net Profit (+199k) and Operating Cash Flow (-1.95M) highlights the aggressive capitalization of development costs. Do not mistake the "accounting profit" for operational sustainability.
Portfolio & Sales Performance
1. Boti: Byteland Overclocked (Legacy)
- Performance: Weak. The title generated a portion of the ~123k PLN Q4 revenue (shared with work-for-hire contracts).
- Forensic View: There is no significant "finished goods" inventory or intangible asset balance associated with Boti, suggesting its development costs are likely fully amortized or expensed. It is a catalogue title providing minimal "keep the lights on" revenue but offers no growth upside.
- Outlook: Irrelevant for future valuation.
2. Project "Nightmare" (In Development)
- Status: Alpha phase complete. Public reveal Q1/Q2 2026.
- The 7.5M PLN Bet: The balance sheet shows 7.5M PLN in Inventory (WIP), up from 5.1M in 2024. This figure represents the capitalized cost of "Nightmare".
- Risk: This asset value is theoretical. It represents cost, not market value. If "Nightmare" underperforms upon release, this 7.5M PLN asset faces immediate impairment, which would wipe out the majority of the company's equity (8.7M PLN Total Equity). The company is effectively "all-in" on this single asset.
Future Outlook & Pipeline
Pipeline Strategy
The studio is pivoting from a service-hybrid model to a proprietary IP model. The 2026 timeline is critical:
- Q1/Q2 2026: "Nightmare" Official Announcement. Watch for steam wishlist velocity immediately post-reveal.
- Release Window: Likely late 2026 or 2027 based on current "Alpha" status.
Work-for-Hire (Farada Group)
The contract with Farada Group (dual-use technology) provides a supplementary cash/revenue stream, diversifying risk. However, for a gaming investment thesis, this is a distraction unless it covers the burn rate of the game dev team—which currently, it does not seem to fully cover given the negative OCF.
Risk Assessment
- Asset Impairment Risk (High): The 7.5M PLN WIP asset is the elephant in the room. A lackluster launch for "Nightmare" will force a massive write-down.
- Cash Burn & Runaway: With ~1.2M PLN cash on hand and a burn rate that consumed ~726k PLN in Q4 (OCF), the company has a short runway (approx. 2 quarters) without new financing or significant revenue inflows. The recent capital raise (IPO/Series) provided a buffer, but it is being consumed rapidly.
- Execution Risk: The transition from alpha to release is where delays often occur, increasing capitalized costs further without valid market validation.
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