Executive Summary

Audit Verdict: NEGATIVE / THESIS CONFIRMED The launch of Tormentor has validated the "High Risk" pre-release forecast. Despite a strong initial Average Selling Price (ASP), the title is suffering from a catastrophic Visibility Burn and critical rejection. The game generated $94.3k Gross Revenue and 3,886 Unit Sales in its opening week, placing it squarely on the trajectory of the Pessimistic Scenario.

With a Steam Review score of 56% (Mixed) and a rank decay from #92 to >#1000 in under 96 hours, the "long tail" revenue thesis is effectively dead. For Madmind Studio ($MMS), this failure exacerbates the existing cash runway concerns and fails to provide the catalyst needed to reverse the stock's downward trend.

Launch Performance Analysis (Ground Truth)

The following data is extracted directly from the GameDevInvestor performance data.

1. Hard Metrics vs. Forecast

Metric	Forecast (Month 1 - Pessimistic)	Forecast (Month 1 - Neutral)	GDI Actuals (Week 1)	Performance Status
Unit Sales	4,500	15,000	3,886	Tracking Pessimistic
Gross Revenue	~$190k (Net Est)*	~$545k (Net Est)*	$94,394	Underperforming
Peak Rank	Top 300 (Implied)	Top 100	#92	On Target (Briefly)
Review Score	~50-60%	~70%	56% (Mixed)	Accurate Prediction

*Note: Forecast revenue was Net. Actuals are Gross. Adjusted for platform fees, Actual Net is ~$56k, significantly trailing the Pessimistic Month 1 target of $190k.

2. Efficiency & Engagement

Implied Price (ASP): $24.29.
- Analysis: This is surprisingly high, matching the base US price ($24.99). It indicates Price Integrity (lack of regional discounting) but likely choked unit volume.
Conversion Efficiency: 2.5% (3,886 Sales / ~157k Est. Wishlists).
- Calculation: Based on ~13,100 followers * 12 multiplier.
- Verdict: Extremely Low. A healthy conversion is 10-20%. This confirms the "stale wishlist" hypothesis.
Sales-to-Review Multiplier: 31.1x (3,886 Sales / 125 Reviews).
- Verdict: Healthy/Vocal. The community is engaged but negative.
Revenue Per Follower (RPF): $7.18.
- Verdict: Moderate monetization of a very small core audience.

Rank & Sentiment Trajectory

1. Visibility Burn Rate (Critical Failure)

The "Visibility Burn" for Tormentor is among the highest observed for a studio of this caliber.

Peak Position: #92 (Launch Day)
Day 4 Position: #1,436
Burn Rate: The game lost ~336 rank spots per day on average.
Implication: The game fell off the "Steam Cliff" immediately. It is no longer visible to organic traffic, meaning future sales will rely entirely on external marketing, which Madmind historically lacks budget for.

2. Sentiment Audit

Steam Reviews (56% Mixed): The reception mirrors the Agony launch but with less volume.
- Common Complaints: "Jankiness," "Optimization issues," and "Boring gameplay loop."
- Refund Risk: High. Multiple mentions of technical instability suggest a refund rate >15%.
Social Media & Narrative:
- Reddit: The narrative is dismissive. Comments describe the game as "Edgy for the sake of edgy" and a "Manhunt clone without the atmosphere."
- External Perception: The "Shock Value" hook has officially yielded diminishing returns. Unlike Succubus, which had sex-appeal retention, Tormentor's grim tone is not retaining players.

Forecast Accuracy Audit

What Was Correct?

Sentiment Prediction: The forecast correctly identified the "Mixed" (56%) reception and the "stale wishlist" risk.
Volume: The forecast's "Pessimistic" unit count was highly accurate regarding the lack of "hockey stick" growth.

What Was Misjudged?

ASP Assumptions: The forecast anticipated heavy regional discounting ($10.50 blended ASP). The actual ASP ($24.29) suggests Madmind maintained a high price floor. While this protected margins per unit, it likely suffocated volume in lower-income regions (LATAM/CIS).
Peak Rank: The game briefly spiked higher (#92) than the Pessimistic view expected, but the retention was far worse than anticipated.

Revised 12-Month Forecast

Given the High Visibility Burn and Mixed reception, the "Neutral" and "Optimistic" scenarios are now statistically impossible. We are revising the "Pessimistic" scenario downwards to reflect the steeper decay curve.

Metric	Original Pessimistic (12m)	Revised Forecast (12m)	Notes
Unit Sales	18,000	11,500	Rank decay suggests near-zero organic daily sales.
Gross Revenue	~$270k (Implied)	~$240,000	High ASP buffers the revenue drop slightly.
Net Revenue	$190k	~$140,000	After Valve cut/taxes.

Revised Trajectory: The game will likely sell <500 copies/month starting in Month 2. It will rely heavily on deep discounts (-50% to -75%) to move units during seasonal sales, which will crash the ASP.

Financial & Strategic Interpretation ($MMS)

Investment Thesis: SELL / AVOID

The failure of Tormentor leaves Madmind Studio in a precarious position.

The Bear Case (Dominant):
- Cash Flow Crisis: With only ~$56k Net Revenue from launch week, this project failed to recoup its dev budget (est. $300k-$500k). It is a net loss.
- Portfolio Fatigue: The "Shock Horror" niche is exhausted. The market has signaled that "edginess" without polish is no longer a viable commercial strategy.
- Stock Impact: $MMS shares are likely to retest historical lows. There is no fundamental support for the stock price based on this release.
The Bull Case (Invalidated):
- Hypothesis: "Volume de-risks Q4."
- Reality: Volume is non-existent (3.8k units). There is no bull case on this asset.

Strategic Verdict

This launch challenges the company's core strategy. The low-budget, high-shock model has hit a wall. Without a pivot to higher quality gameplay (mechanics over gore), future titles are likely to suffer the same fate.

Conclusion & Model Improvements

Tormentor is a commercial failure resulting from a disconnect between product quality and market evolution. The GDI performance data confirms a "soft launch" that crashed immediately due to poor reception.

Post-Launch Audit: Tormentor (MMS) – Structural Failure Confirmed