Pre-Release Forecast: Tormentor ($MMS) – Investment Analysis & Sales Projections
A deep-dive analytical report for Tormentor (Madmind Studio). Our analysis of Steam follower velocity, wishlist health, and prologue performance indicates a "High Risk" launch. We forecast Year 1 Net Revenue between $190k (Pessimistic) and $545k (Neutral).
Pre-Release Sales Forecast & Investment Analysis: TORMENTOR
Forecast Update Notice
The Management Board of MADMIND STUDIO S.A., headquartered in Bydgoszcz (“the Company”, “the Issuer”), announces that today it has decided to postpone the release of the game Tormentor on the Steam sales platform.
The game is currently awaiting a positive review and approval for sale from Steam reviewers.
Once the game is accepted, a new release date for this platform will be set.
The release of the game on the remaining sales platforms — Epic Store, Madmind Store, and GOG.com — remains unchanged and will take place at 19:15 on November 25, 2025.
Due to this unexpected delay, our previously published sales forecast for Tormentor is no longer accurate.
A fully revised forecast will be published within three days before the newly announced Steam release date.
Executive Summary
Tormentor (Steam ID: 1493440) is a high-risk, niche horror title developed and published by Madmind Studio (WSE: MMS). Scheduled for release on November 25, 2025, the game follows the studio's established formula of extreme, shock-value horror (Agony, Succubus).
Momentum Verdict: NEGATIVE / HIGH RISK. Current momentum indicators are alarming. With only ~12,100 followers days before launch and a "Prologue" peak CCU of just 226, the title shows significantly lower traction than the studio's previous hits (Succubus had ~67k followers). While the game is financially material to the micro-cap publisher (potentially representing >20% of annual turnover if successful), the data points towards a "soft launch" with limited organic hype. The company's precarious financial position ("Falling Star" status, <1 year cash runway) amplifies the investment risk.
Game & Company Overview
- Game: TORMENTOR
- Developer/Publisher: Madmind Studio
- Stock Ticker: $MMS (NewConnect/Warsaw), $12R (Frankfurt)
- Genre: Psychological Horror / Torture Simulation / Action
- Release Date: November 25, 2025
- Price (Est.): $19.99 - $24.99 (Base), likely heavily discounted regionally.
Studio Track Record (Madmind Studio):
- Succubus (2021): Estimated Revenue ~$5M. Peak CCU ~1,300. (Success)
- Agony (2018): Strong sales despite poor critical reception (Metascore 47). (Commercial Success / Critical Failure)
- Strategic Context: Madmind relies on "shock marketing" to bypass traditional ad spend. Tormentor pushes this further with a "Dark Web/Snuff" theme.
Trend & Momentum Analysis
1. Follower Velocity & Growth
- Total Followers: ~12,088 (as of Nov 20, 2025).
- Daily Growth (Last 30d): +12.8 followers/day.
- Growth Curve: Linear/Flat. There is no "hockey stick" exponential growth typically seen days before a major hit launch. A healthy AA title should see 50-100+ daily adds this close to release.
2. "Hype Freshness"
- Freshness Score: 6.0% (Only ~726 followers added in the last 90 days).
- Analysis: The wishlist is "stale." The vast majority of interest was likely acquired years ago (first seen on SteamDB in 2020). Older wishlists convert at a significantly lower rate (often <5%) compared to fresh ones (15-20%).
3. Event Correlation
- Prologue Release (Oct 29, 2025): Resulted in a minor rank improvement (390 -> 365), but failed to generate a significant follower spike.
- Marketing Push: Recent "Road to Release" updates have barely moved the needle.
4. Wishlist Rank Trajectory
- Current Rank: ~365 (Global).
- Trajectory: Stable/Slight Improvement. While not plummeting, it is not climbing aggressively enough to suggest a Top 100 launch debut.
Market & Sentiment Analysis
USP Critical Assessment
- The Hook: Managing a torture prison with a "Manhunt" mode where victims fight back.
- Verdict: The USP relies entirely on Shock Value. While this worked for Agony, the market for "edgy" horror has saturated. The "Prologue" CCU of 226 suggests the novelty may have worn off or the execution is lacking.
Community Sentiment
- Steam Hub/Reddit: Activity is low. The "Prologue" received "Mixed" reviews (58%), criticizing jankiness and optimization—classic Madmind issues.
- Streamer Potential: High. This is a "Streamer Bait" game. If top tier gore/horror streamers (e.g., specialized horror channels) pick it up, it could outperform the pessimistic data.
Regional Pricing Strategy
- Risk: Madmind historically prices aggressively. We expect a $24.99 US price point but deep discounts (up to -50% equivalent) in LATAM/CIS/China to drive unit volume. This dilutes the Revenue-per-Unit significantly.
Benchmark Comparison
| Metric | Tormentor (Target) | Succubus (Benchmark) | Agony (Benchmark) | Tormentor: Prologue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Followers (Launch) | ~12,100 | ~67,000 | ~53,000 | N/A |
| Peak CCU | ? | 1,287 | ~1,700 | 226 |
| Followers-to-CCU | ? | ~1:52 | ~1:31 | N/A |
Critical Observation: Tormentor has roughly 1/5th the follower footprint of Succubus. If the conversion ratio holds, a Peak CCU of ~250-300 is the mathematical projection, which aligns dangerously close to the Prologue's actual performance.
Sales & CCU Forecast (12-Month)
Key Assumptions
- Blended ASP (Net): $10.50. This figure is derived as: Base Price ($24.99) * Regional Mix Factor (0.6) * Publisher Share (0.7).
- Note: The 0.7 multiplier accounts for the 30% platform fee taken by Valve.
- Conversion Rate: Low (6-8%) due to stale wishlists and "Mixed" prologue reception.
- Launch Discount: -15% typical for indie launch.
Scenario 1: Pessimistic (Most Likely)
- Logic: Game performs like the Prologue. Niche audience only. Mixed reviews (~50-60%) deter casuals.
- Launch Peak CCU Target: 350 - 500
- Est. Units (12m): 18,000
- Est. Net Revenue: ~$190k
Scenario 2: Neutral (The "Madmind Standard")
- Logic: Madmind activates their existing Succubus mailing list/cross-promotion. Streamers provide a short-term boost. Reviews settle at "Mostly Positive" (70%).
- Launch Peak CCU Target: 800 - 1,100
- Est. Units (12m): 52,000
- Est. Net Revenue: ~$545k
Scenario 3: Optimistic (Viral Hit)
- Logic: The "Dark Web" theme goes viral on TikTok/Shorts. Controversy drives hate-clicks and curiosity buys.
- Launch Peak CCU Target: 2,500+
- Est. Units (12m): 100,000+
- Est. Net Revenue: $1.1M+
Detailed Monthly Forecast (Cumulative Units Sold)
| Month | Timeframe | Pessimistic (Units) | Neutral (Units) | Optimistic (Units) | Context / Sales Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nov/Dec '25 | 4,500 | 15,000 | 35,000 | Launch + Winter Sale Start |
| 2 | Jan '26 | 6,000 | 20,000 | 45,000 | Winter Sale Tail / Drop-off |
| 3 | Feb '26 | 7,200 | 23,000 | 50,000 | Standard Decay |
| 4 | Mar '26 | 8,100 | 25,500 | 54,000 | Spring Sale Potential |
| 5 | Apr '26 | 8,900 | 27,500 | 57,000 | Long Tail (Deep Discounting Starts) |
| 6 | May '26 | 9,600 | 29,000 | 60,000 | Quiet Period |
| 7 | Jun '26 | 10,200 | 30,500 | 63,000 | Pre-Summer Sale Lull |
| 8 | Jul '26 | 12,500 | 38,000 | 75,000 | Summer Sale (Major Spike) |
| 9 | Aug '26 | 13,200 | 40,000 | 78,000 | Post-Sale Decay |
| 10 | Sep '26 | 13,800 | 41,500 | 81,000 | Back to School / Slow |
| 11 | Oct '26 | 16,500 | 49,000 | 95,000 | Steam Scream Fest (Halloween) |
| 12 | Nov '26 | 18,000 | 52,000 | 100,000 | Autumn Sale / 1-Year Anniversary |
Risk Factors & Catalysts
- High Saturation: The "Action/Adventure" and "Indie" tags are flooded.
- Censorship Risk: High. The game involves torture and "drugs". Potential bans in Germany/Australia could cut off key Western revenue.
- Financial Pressure: With the company's stock down ~48% and cash reserves tight, a failure here could force a capital raise or deeper discounts (devaluing the brand).
Investment Takeaways
- Scale & Materiality: HIGH. For a company with ~$3M USD market cap, a $500k revenue hit (Neutral scenario) is material. A flop (Pessimistic) would be damaging.
- ROI Analysis: Assuming a budget of ~$300k-$500k (typical for this scope in Poland), the Neutral scenario barely breaks even in Year 1. The Pessimistic scenario is a loss.
- Stock Impact: $MMS is a "Falling Star". Tormentor does not currently look like the catalyst to reverse the trend. The market likely needs to see a Succubus-level hit, which the data does not currently support.
Conclusion
Tormentor appears to be a smaller, more difficult release for Madmind Studio compared to Succubus. The low follower velocity and weak Prologue performance suggest the "shock horror" novelty is fading. Unless a viral marketing miracle occurs at launch, investors should expect performance in the Pessimistic to Neutral range, likely generating $200k-$500k in net revenue over 12 months—a figure that may struggle to move the needle for the struggling stock ticker.