Pre-Release Sales Forecast & Investment Analysis: Moonlighter 2 – The Endless Vault

Executive Summary

Moonlighter 2: The Endless Vault is a 3D action RPG with roguelike and shop-management elements, developed by Digital Sun and published by 11 bit studios S.A. (ticker: 11B, Warsaw Stock Exchange). It continues the core “dungeon by night, shop by day” loop of the original Moonlighter, this time in fully 3D environments with expanded systems and a broader multi-platform roadmap.

As of now, the game has 20,240 Steam followers and a Steam Wishlist Rank of #83 among upcoming titles. These metrics place it solidly in the upper tier of mid-budget indie and AA projects, but below the level of the most anticipated blockbusters. Using standard follower-to-wishlist heuristics and rank-based comparisons, this implies an estimated wishlist pool of roughly 240,000–360,000, with a working midpoint of about 300,000.

Using franchise history, Gamalytic data for prior Digital Sun titles, and comparable mid-budget roguelike/management games, this report models first-year PC sales in a range of 80,000–300,000 units, with a neutral forecast of 180,000 units. At an assumed blended PC average selling price (ASP) of USD 24, this corresponds to a neutral gross revenue of USD 4.3m and net revenue (after platform fees) of about USD 3.0m.

Given an estimated combined development and marketing budget of USD 3–4m (midpoint USD 3.5m), the neutral scenario suggests break-even to slightly positive ROI when consoles and long-tail PC sales are included, while the optimistic case offers a clearly attractive return. For 11 bit studios, with 2024 revenue of approximately PLN 140.5m, Moonlighter 2 should be viewed as a supportive mid-budget contributor rather than a thesis-defining release, but one that can deepen the company’s portfolio and IP base.

---

Game & Company Overview

Game: Moonlighter 2: The Endless Vault
Steam link: https://store.steampowered.com/app/2350790/Moonlighter_2_The_Endless_Vault/
Developer: Digital Sun
Publisher: 11 bit studios S.A. (11B, Warsaw Stock Exchange)
Release plan: Early Access launch on Steam and Microsoft Store on 19 November 2025, following a delay from the original October date. A full release is planned later on PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S and PC, including PC Game Pass presence.
Platforms: PC (Steam, Microsoft Store) at Early Access, later PS5 and Xbox Series X|S
Genre and tags: Action RPG, Action-Adventure, Roguelike, Inventory Management, Shopkeeper, Single-player

Moonlighter 2 evolves the original’s formula by moving to fully 3D, multi-biome environments and by deepening inventory, shop, and town-building systems. The core fantasy remains the double life of a dungeon-delving adventurer and a merchant managing prices, stock and reputation.

Parent company: 11 bit studios S.A. is a Polish developer–publisher known for This War of Mine, Frostpunk, Frostpunk 2 and The Alters. According to its 2024 annual report, the company generated PLN 140.54m in revenue, an all-time high and a sharp increase versus 2023, driven mainly by Frostpunk 2. It is listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange under ticker 11B.

---

Market & Sentiment Analysis

Steam Metrics (based on provided inputs)

The user-provided metrics are:

• Steam Followers: 20,240
• Steam Wishlist Rank: #83 among upcoming titles

Steam followers represent users who explicitly chose to follow the game. For unreleased titles, industry heuristics (sometimes called the Game-Pulse / Boxleiter model) often approximate wishlists as 10–20× followers. Applying a conservative-to-aggressive range to 20,240 followers:

• Low factor (12×): ~242,880 wishlists
• High factor (18×): ~364,320 wishlists

This yields an indicative range of 240,000–360,000 wishlists, with a midpoint of ~300,000.

The global Wishlist Rank of #83 places Moonlighter 2 within the upper band of upcoming Steam releases. Historically, games in the top 100 wishlists often land in the low-to-mid hundreds of thousands of wishlists close to launch, which aligns with the follower-based estimate above. The combination suggests strong but not breakout interest – consistent with a well-known mid-budget sequel rather than a new AAA IP.

Community & Sentiment

Steam Community activity shows an engaged player base. Key signals include:

• Active discussion threads around the demo and closed playtests.
• Mixed but constructive feedback on changes to shop systems and roguelike intensity.
• Developer responses promising concrete adjustments (for example, reintroducing more manual control over shop pricing and balancing difficulty).

The overall tone is cautiously positive. Fans value the expanded systems and appreciate that feedback is being incorporated, but some express reservations about art direction changes and the stronger roguelike emphasis versus the original.

Social Media and Streaming

On social media and streaming platforms:

• YouTube: coverage consists of preview videos, demo impressions and breakdowns of the three-layer gameplay loop (combat, inventory, shop). Sentiment is generally positive, highlighting the unique blend of cozy shopkeeping and more intense action.
• Twitch: a dedicated category exists; demo events and playtests attracted several mid-sized streamers, but there is no sustained pre-release presence yet. This suggests potential for spikes during launch and updates, rather than a strong always-on streaming profile.
• X (Twitter), Facebook, Discord: 11 bit and Digital Sun consistently promote the game, positioning it as a high-priority 2025 indie sequel. Communications emphasise community collaboration during Early Access and the willingness to iterate based on feedback.

Developer / Publisher Track Record (with Gamalytic data)

Digital Sun’s track record is anchored by two relevant titles:

• Moonlighter (2018) – shopkeeping action-roguelite.

  • Gamalytic estimates gross revenue for the base game at around USD 5.4m, with an indicative range between USD 3.4m and 7.4m.
  • Using the base price of USD 19.99, this implies on the order of 250,000–350,000 units sold on Steam alone, before DLC and console versions.
  • Steam reviews are Very Positive, with 20,000+ reviews and a long post-launch tail.

• The Mageseeker: A League of Legends Story (developer: Digital Sun, publisher: Riot Forge).

  • Gamalytic lists this as an action RPG in the League of Legends universe.
  • While the exact figures are partially gated, public snippets and third-party references indicate mid-single-digit millions of USD in revenue on Steam and solid unit sales, demonstrating that Digital Sun can successfully ship larger-scope projects under a strong brand.

For an additional benchmark, we introduce a comparable mid-budget roguelike/management hybrid from the broader market:

• Backpack Hero (2023) – inventory-management roguelite.
  • According to publisher materials quoting Gamalytic, the game has sold approximately 550,700 copies on Steam for roughly USD 7.4m in revenue at an average price of about USD 19.99.

Combined, these data points from Gamalytic and related sources suggest that Digital Sun has proven capacity to deliver titles capable of generating USD 5–10m in PC revenue over time when matched with suitable IP and pricing, and that the target genre can support mid-to-high six-figure unit outcomes.

---

Benchmark Comparison (Gamalytic-Based)

To frame Moonlighter 2’s potential, we select two benchmarks and explicitly ground them in Gamalytic-derived data:

Benchmark 1: Moonlighter (2018, Digital Sun / 11 bit studios)

• Genre: Action, Adventure, Indie
• Gamalytic estimated gross revenue (base game): USD 5.4m (range USD 3.4m–7.4m)
• Implied unit sales (Steam, base game only): ≈ 270,000–360,000 (assuming USD ~15–20 realised ASP over the product’s life)
• Steam all-time peak CCU: about 6,200 concurrent players at launch window
• Review volume and score: 20k+ reviews, Very Positive

Relevance to Moonlighter 2: identical developer and publisher, same universe and core loop, but 2D vs 3D. It demonstrates the potential of the formula and brand when successfully executed, and provides a reference range for long-term PC revenue.

Benchmark 2: Backpack Hero (2023, Jaspel / IndieArk)

• Genre: Inventory-focused roguelite with management elements
• According to IndieArk’s summary (sourced from Gamalytic):
  • Estimated unit sales: ≈ 550,700 copies on Steam
  • Estimated gross revenue: ≈ USD 7.4m
  • Price point: USD 19.99
• Steam peak CCU: around 3,700 concurrent players at peak (per SteamDB)
• Review volume and score: circa 8,000 reviews, Very Positive

Relevance to Moonlighter 2: similar scale and hybrid nature (roguelike plus inventory/management), though without an established franchise. Backpack Hero shows how a strong mechanical hook, combined with solid execution, can reach mid six-figure sales and mid-single-digit millions in revenue.

Positioning of Moonlighter 2 vs Benchmarks

Based on the follower count (20,240) and wishlist rank (#83), Moonlighter 2 sits between the current pre-launch footprint of a smaller successful roguelite and the historical footprint of a fully released flagship like Moonlighter 1. It also enjoys the additional advantage of brand recognition and cross-promotion from 11 bit’s portfolio.

This justifies modeling Moonlighter 2’s first-year PC performance in a wide band, with Moonlighter 1’s lifetime performance as an upper bound and Backpack Hero’s single-platform performance as a more conservative but still ambitious target.

---

Sales Forecast (12-Month)

All forecasts refer to the first 12 months from PC launch (Steam and other PC storefronts). Console platforms (PS5, Xbox Series X|S, Game Pass) are treated as upside not included in the numeric tables but discussed qualitatively.

Key Global Assumptions

• Estimated launch-adjacent wishlists: ~300,000 (midpoint of follower- and rank-based estimates)
• Blended ASP (PC over 12 months): USD 24
  • Nominal launch price assumed at USD 29.99
  • Discounts and regional pricing gradually reduce real ASP
• Platform fee (Steam and similar): 30%, leaving 70% net to publisher
• Wishlist-to-owner conversion within 12 months:
  • Pessimistic: ≈ 0.27×
  • Neutral: ≈ 0.60×
  • Optimistic: ≈ 1.00×

Pessimistic Scenario

• Units sold (12 months, PC): 80,000
• Gross revenue: 80,000 × USD 24 ≈ USD 1.9m
• Net revenue (after 30% fee): ≈ USD 1.34m

Assumptions:

• Mixed reception (for example, “Mostly Positive” in the low 80s) with criticisms focused on pacing, difficulty spikes, or shop mechanics.
• Limited organic uplift from streams and creators after launch.
• Console versions launch later than expected or underperform, providing minimal indirect lift to PC in year one.
• Early Access framing dampens full-price sales at launch, with more players waiting for deeper discounts or 1.0 release.

Neutral Scenario (Base Case)

• Units sold (12 months, PC): 180,000
• Gross revenue: 180,000 × USD 24 ≈ USD 4.32m
• Net revenue (after 30% fee): ≈ USD 3.02m

Assumptions:

• Strong reception (“Very Positive” or high-80s equivalence) driven by refined shop/town systems and a balance between roguelike depth and accessibility.
• Wishlist conversion of around 0.6×, aided by steady updates during Early Access, seasonal sales and positive word of mouth.
• Moderate but consistent Twitch and YouTube presence, with content spikes around major updates and events.
• Additional PC storefront and subscription deals (for example, Game Pass) help marketing reach but are not the primary driver of PC revenue.

Optimistic Scenario

• Units sold (12 months, PC): 300,000
• Gross revenue: 300,000 × USD 24 ≈ USD 7.20m
• Net revenue (after 30% fee): ≈ USD 5.04m

Assumptions:

• Very strong critical and player reception, with Moonlighter 2 becoming a “must play” for roguelike and shop-management fans.
• High wishlist conversion (~1.0×) thanks to exceptional gameplay, effective update cadence, and strong community sentiment.
• Early console launches (including Game Pass) significantly boost visibility, with console interest feeding back into PC sales.
• The title closes part of the gap to Moonlighter 1’s long-term performance on PC and establishes itself as a foundation for DLC and expansions.

---

Forecast Charts

Approximate monthly unit sales curve across scenarios (PC only, in units):

This shape reflects a front-loaded launch (especially in the optimistic case), followed by a long tail supported by updates, discounts and content drops.

---

Risk Factors & Catalysts

Key Risks

• Early Access dynamics: If major design concerns are not addressed early, Early Access could lock in mixed sentiment that suppresses wishlist conversion and launch momentum.
• Crowded release window: The shift from October to November suggests that the publisher is already sensitive to congestion. November may still be busy, limiting coverage and front-page visibility.
• Genre saturation: Roguelike and action-RPG categories are crowded. Without a clear differentiating hook, the game may struggle to stand out beyond existing fans of the original.
• Budget vs. performance: With an assumed budget of USD 3–4m, the lower end of the forecast range (pessimistic) would imply negative ROI unless consoles or long-tail significantly overperform.

Potential Catalysts

• Excellent critical reception and player reviews at Early Access launch, which could quickly push conversion closer to the optimistic trajectory.
• Strong update cadence adding content and systems that deepen the shop/town loop, turning Moonlighter 2 into a “live” indie with repeat coverage and continuous wishlist inflow.
• Early console releases and high-profile subscription placements (for example, Game Pass) that expand the audience and drive back-catalog interest in both Moonlighter titles.
• Synergies with 11 bit’s portfolio, with cross-promotion from Frostpunk 2, The Alters and future titles, reinforcing the 11 bit ecosystem.

---

Investment Takeaways

Revenue & Margin Impact for 11 bit studios

Using the neutral scenario net PC revenue of ~USD 3.0m and 11 bit’s 2024 revenue of PLN 140.54m (roughly USD mid-30m at recent FX rates), Moonlighter 2’s first-year PC revenue would represent approximately 8–10% of a single year’s sales if timing aligns with the reporting period.

Including likely console revenue and long-tail PC sales, the title could plausibly reach a mid-teens percentage contribution to annual revenue in a strong outcome. However, Frostpunk 2 and other major IPs will remain the main earnings drivers.

ROI Analysis vs. Budget

Assuming a total development and marketing budget of USD 3.5m (midpoint):

• Pessimistic (net USD 1.34m): ROI ≈ –62%
• Neutral (net USD 3.02m): ROI ≈ –14% on PC alone; when adding moderate console and tail revenue, this can move into slightly positive territory.
• Optimistic (net USD 5.04m): ROI ≈ +44% before accounting for consoles or long-term sales.

This profile is typical for mid-budget projects: risk of sub-scale performance, but with room for attractive returns if execution and timing are strong.

Strategic Implications

• Portfolio diversification: Moonlighter 2 offers a lighter, more colorful counterweight to the darker, heavier emotional tone of titles like This War of Mine and Frostpunk, broadening the audience.
• Strengthened external publishing model: A successful launch reinforces 11 bit’s strategy of publishing externally developed games alongside internal projects, increasing deal-flow credibility.
• IP building: A well-received Moonlighter 2 can solidify Moonlighter as a long-term IP asset with DLC, expansions and potential transmedia opportunities, contributing to the company’s intangible value.
• Signal to investors: Strong performance would reassure investors that 11 bit can repeatedly identify and scale promising mid-sized titles, reducing reliance on a small set of flagship projects.

---

Conclusion

Moonlighter 2: The Endless Vault enters Early Access with meaningful pre-release traction: over 20,000 followers, a top-100 wishlist rank, favourable press coverage and a publisher–developer pair with a proven track record. At the same time, it faces a crowded release period, genre saturation and the inherent uncertainty of an Early Access launch.

For investors in 11 bit studios (11B), Moonlighter 2 should be viewed as a mid-budget, mid-risk opportunity. In the neutral scenario, it delivers incremental but not transformative revenue and edges toward positive ROI once console and tail contributions are included. In the optimistic scenario, it becomes a clear financial and strategic win that strengthens 11 bit’s external publishing credentials and Moonlighter’s IP value. The pessimistic scenario, however, underlines the risk of underperformance in a competitive market.

Key datapoints to watch post-launch will be Early Access user review trends, the rate at which wishlists convert to owners, the strength and impact of major updates, and the timing and commercial reception of console releases. These factors will determine whether Moonlighter 2 tracks closer to the lower or upper bound of the forecast range and how material its contribution will ultimately be to 11 bit’s financial profile and investor narrative.